Posts Tagged ‘colts’

Daniel Adler: The Loser’s Curse? Don’t Count On It

Thursday, February 11th, 2010

The Raiders lost Super Bowl XXXVII after winning 11 games during the regular season. The next year, they won 5 games, setting in motion events that led to the return of Art Shell, the Lane Kiffin experiment, and the (ongoing) JaMarcus Russell era. Is there evidence that losing the Super Bowl can be devastating for a franchise? USA Today recently, err, not so recently (I need a straw man, okay?) ran an article sure to discourage Colts fans. They examine the 13 Super Bowl losers from 1993-2006 and determine that only 6/13 made the playoffs in the subsequent season and none advanced past the divisional round. This all sounds pretty dire, but what does it mean for the Colts? Is there a curse on the Super Bowl loser? Let’s examine the numbers. Looking at the winners and losers of the first Super Bowls, it appears the both winners and losers make the playoffs in the following season at a similar rate. Two more Super Bowl winners have returned to the playoffs than losers, but the difference is not statistically significant. Furthermore, when we consider how the teams perform in the regular season compared to their previous season, we actually see that the losers more frequently improve. Of course, part of the reason for this fact is that Super Bowl winners have better regular season records on average. There is lots of reversion to the mean for both winners and losers. Looking at the years 1970-2008, we see that the Super Bowl winners have had stronger regular season records than the losers and the gap is of equal magnitude in the next season. *My data started in 1970 and did not include this season’s results. So both teams win 2.1 fewer games on average, however, the winners are .9 better to start. It appears the winning or losing the Super Bowl does not predict next year’s success once we control for wins in the previous year. A slightly more rigorous analysis incorporating multiple regression provides similar results. Once we control for previous year winning percentage or better yet, scoring ratio, winning/losing the Super Bowl has no significant predictive power for the next regular season winning percentage (.03, p=.31 for winner dummy; .01 p=.69 for loser dummy; i.e. not significant). However, my straw man may have a bit of a point. Since 1993, 8/17 losers have made the playoffs while 12/17 winners have returned to the playoffs. Additionally, 14 of the losers got worse and only one improved. 11 winners won fewer games after winning the Super Bowl and three improved. Still, the Colts should not worry about a Raiders-like tailspin. There are many notable stories of post-Super Bowl loss struggles, but losing the Super Bowl has not negatively impacted a team’s chance of success in the subsequent regular season in a statistically significant way (5% level…or even 10%). As for the playoffs…we’ll look at that next time. Check out our website: http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/ More on Super Bowl

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Daniel Adler: The Loser’s Curse? Don’t Count On It

Colts’ Approach Leaves Room for Second-Guesses – New York Times

Monday, February 8th, 2010

CTV.ca Colts' Approach Leaves Room for Second-Guesses New York Times The Colts sacrificed the regular season for the postseason but were left to watch the Saints celebrate at the Super Bowl. More Photos » The latest news, notes and analysis from Miami where the Colts and Saints will contend Super … Payton and Brees formed quite a connection Tampa Tribune 'Lots of love going around' New Orleans as hoarse Who Dat Nation savours win The Canadian Press The Saints scored 18 consecutive points to prevail in their Super Bowl debut CNN NOLA.com

Elizabeth Engel: Damn! They did it!

Monday, February 8th, 2010

Stud of the game: Tracy Porter. I know Drew Brees got MVP (because really, the winning QB almost always gets MVP), but Tracy Porter’s pick in the 4th quarter was what really sealed the win, putting the Colts in a 14 point hole with just over 3 minutes left in the game. The Colts owned the first quarter, but the Saints pretty much owned the rest of the game. Key plays, in addition to Tracy Porter’s pick, included the surprise onside kick to start the second quarter, the challenge on the successful two point conversion, Matt Stover’s missed field goal, and the fact that Garrett Hartley nailed 3 long ones. And the fact that the Peytonator spent the entire second quarter watching the game from the sidelines, which was exactly what the Saints needed to do. You beat Peyton by keeping him off the field. Congratulations to the Saints. Eagles fans will miss you in the “never won a Super Bowl” club. This is gonna be one hell of a last week of Mardi Gras season. More on Super Bowl

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Elizabeth Engel: Damn! They did it!

Ken Levine: Super Bowl XXLVIIXXLVVI

Sunday, February 7th, 2010

Has there been a more satisfying Super Bowl ever? What a great night for the city of New Orleans! 31-17 the final over the Colts. The celebration in the French Quarter should start winding down in June. Wish I were there to vomit in the street with the rest of you. Some random thoughts on the game and the telecast. I have to say I’m pleased for many reasons. I still hate the Colts for the chicken-shit way they left Baltimore – sneaking out of town under the cover of darkness. You may know them as the Indianapolis Colts. To me they’re the Oz Lions. Super Bowl Sunday is the second largest food consumption day in the U.S. Tied for first – every Jewish holiday. We Americans consume 4 million pounds of fat from potato chips alone. The third leading killer of American males: Doritos. Jim Nantz did a fine job but I still think Dick Enberg should call the Super Bowl. Jim Nantz should join of the cast of How I Met Your Mother . He was hilarious Monday night. CBS has taken a lot of heat for allowing an anti-abortion commercial and refusing a pro-Gay spot. Here’s how they could have solved that problem. Do the same anti-abortion ad but instead of featuring Tim Tebow and his mom, just use Richard Simmons and his mom. That way everyone will be happy. Were there any groups protesting that the game was held in Sun Life Stadium. Where were the Moon Life zealots? Since CBS allowed the ad, why not go all the way and include it in the billboard. “The 1st quarter is brought to you by Cars.com, E-Trade, and outlaw abortions.” My favorite commercial was the Snickers ad featuring Betty White and Abe Vigoda playing football and getting clotheslined. My second favorite: I had no second favorite. Analyst Phil Simms is Al Gore in a coma. Don’t you hate it when you buy two squares for the first quarter pool and get the numbers 2 and 5? It’s time to do away with the Roman Numerals already. We’re at the point where only Spartacus can figure them out. But if the NFL insists on the practice then I say all players’ numbers on the back of their jerseys should be in Roman Numerals too. Oh please! Peyton Manning was misty over Queen Latifa singing America the Beautiful. Is he hoping to become Sarah Palin’s running mate? Carrie Underwood sang the National Anthem wearing one of Elvis’ old jumpsuits. She was terrific until that last note and then yeow!!! I hate it when the weather’s great. Much more fun to see all those CEO’s and other bailout beneficiaries getting drenched in their 50 yard line seats. The Super Bowl is the one program where people fast forward through the show to get to the commercials. New Orleans went to their favorite weapon to put the game away – a turnover. They’ve been scoring big points doing that all year. Quick: name the two teams in last year’s Super Bowl? NO MORE TALKING BABIES!!!! EVER!!!!!! In every Super Bowl party there’s always one insufferable idiot who comments after every commercial. That would be me. How fucked up is NBC when even Jay Leno is doing promos for David Letterman? The Who looked ancient. I thought I was watching the Abe Vigoda commercial again. I imagine for anyone under 60 they were the “Why?” At this rate Little Anthony & the Imperials will be performing at next year’s Super Bowl. Quarterback Drew Brees deserves a lot of kudos but let’s not forget Garrett Hartley and his three lonnnnng field goals, and the interception/touchdown by Tracy Porter. I’m tired of the Clydesdales. Used to love ‘em but enough! I don’t need my heart to be tugged. I have Peyton Manning for that. Since Pete Townsend of the Who is a registered sex offender (he was arrested in 2003 in a pedophilia sting in the UK), child abuse organizers flooded the area around the stadium with warning fliers and postcards. The fliers should have warned everybody about Carrie Underwood’s final note. Wow! The Saints started the second half with an on-side kick. And pulled it off. The only thing that would have been more surprising is if one of the Bud Lite commercials had been funny. A lot of anger towards girlfriends in this year’s commercials. Those bitches won’t let us buy mobile TV’s or drive Dodge Chargers! Excitementwise, you can’t ask for much more than going into the 4th quarter with a one point difference. The Saints’ 4th quarter challenge resulted in a reversed call and two points. See that baseball? It’s more important to get the call right than stubbornly stick to tradition. It would have been nice had the anti-abortion spot gone right up against the Go-Daddy commercial, don’t you think? Again, congratulations to the city and citizens of New Orleans (who I’m sure are completely plastered). And what a perfect metaphor for Katrina – the Saints were down 10-0 and came back to win it all. Come on. Even you Colt fans have to admit it’s a wonderful story. Okay, well… maybe not. More on Super Bowl

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Ken Levine: Super Bowl XXLVIIXXLVVI

1st half: Colts tie Super Bowl record – Indianapolis Star

Sunday, February 7th, 2010

National Post 1st half: Colts tie Super Bowl record Indianapolis Star MIAMI — The Colts tied a Super Bowl record for the longest touchdown drive and had a goal-line stand near the end of the second quarter to lead New Orleans 10-6 at halftime of Super Bowl XLIV. The Colts' 96-yard touchdown drive that … Who was the hero of the Saints Super Bowl win? New York Daily News Saints march past Colts in Super Bowl | Philadelphia Inquirer | 02/07/2010 Philadelphia Inquirer Tony's Take on fourth quarter of Saints 31, Colts 17 Plain Dealer The Canadian Press

Jason Wojciechowski: Super Bowl for Good Guide: Spice Up Your Party and Help NOLA, Indy and Haiti in the Process

Sunday, February 7th, 2010

The Super Bowl is hours away, but I’ve encountered one major problem as I make the final preparations for my soiree: nobody actually cares about the outcome of the game. I’m faced with the age-old problem of what to do when the Super Bowl features small/medium market teams. Sure, I love a good game, but football that does not involve the Oregon Ducks (heartbreaking season) just will not keep my rapt attention past one commercial break…and there will be many! Without some quick action, my big party could quickly devolve into poorly played game of charades, or far worse — talking about our jobs! Luckily, there is an age-old solution for this age-old problem. Gambling. Okay, gambling for a good cause. Follow the simple steps below and your party-goers will be as enthralled from kickoff to the final whistle as an Indy or NOLA local…Who dat? More importantly, they will help great local and global causes in the process. Enjoy the Super Bowl for Good Guide . Step 1 – Trash Talk and Give Locally Have your guests declare their allegiance when they walk in the door and keep a tally. Saints’ supporters : Text SAINTS to 25383 to give $10 to Brad Pitt’s “Make It Right” foundation, which is building 150 sustainable and safe homes in the Lower 9th Ward of New Orleans. Colts’ fans : Give to the United Way of Central Indiana’s Live United fund. The fund is supported by the Colts organization and distributes grants locally to organizations like the Big Brothers Big Sisters. Don’t forget to tweet and and update your Facebook status. Like a romantic relationship, your football fandom is only real once it is archived online. Try, “Brad Pitt’s @MakeItRight_9 builds safe, green homes 4 New Orleans families. Text “I support the #Saints and Brad Pitt’s @MakeItRight_9 foundation. Text “SAINTS” to 25383 to give $10″ or, “Go Colts! I’m a Hoosier for Superbowl Sunday. Show your Indy love by giving to United Way http://bit.ly/coltsuw.” Your party is off to a good start with your guest declaring their allegiance for the day, but what happens if they game is a blowout? “Boxes” has saved many Super Bowl party from a lackluster 3rd Quarter implosion. Boxes is a game that pays a winner based on the score at the end of each quarter. Your team can be getting destroyed, but a field goal at the end of the first half might just put a few bucks in your pocket. Or, that of a charity in this iteration. With Boxes, everyone has a stake in the game no matter the score. Step 2 – Boxes for Haiti Boxes seems tricky, but it is quite simple: Create a 10×10 grid — total of 100 boxes Write “Colts” on the top of the Box and “Saints” across the left side (In image: “Colts” where it says “Team A” and “Saints” where it says “Team B”) Have your guests buy a box. Generally $1-$5 per square with people buying 5 to 10 squares depending how many people are attending. The purchaser writes the name of a charity working in Haiti (suggestions below) and their initial in the squares they have purchased (Note: It is random, so it doesn’t really matter which squares they choose). After all the squares are purchased, put scraps of paper with the numbers 0-9 in a hat. Pull the numbers out of the hat at random and write the corresponding number at the top of the grid. Repeat along the side and your grid should look like the example below (Except your Boxes will say the team names and names of charities instead of people). Your numbers will different from the sample below depending on the random order in which you pull them out of the hat. The randomness is important, because some squares have far greater odds of winning than others, 7 and 3 for example. There is a variation where you number the Boxes first, then charge premiums to buy the most sought after squares. You’ve got yourself some Boxes! The winner at the end of each quarter is the person who owns the box with the numbers corresponding to the score. If the 1st Quarter ends with the Colts up 7-0, then the person who wrote their initials in the box with 7 across the top (Colts) and 0 on the side (Saints) wins the pot for that quarter. Of course, in this case, the money will be donated to the Haiti the winner chose when buying the box. Typically, the winner of each of the first three quarters takes $20, with $40 going to the person owning the box with the final score. If teams have more than one number (Tens), only the second number is used to determine the winner. For example, Saints 21 and Colts 14 at the end of the first half means that the person with the Saints “1″ and Colts “4″ box wins. Links are provided below for the winner to forward their earnings to the charity of their choice. TIP: Wait until the 1st Quarter is nearly over to number the boxes. This way latecomers can still get in on the action. Haiti Boxes Charity Suggestions: Health and Rehabilitation Partners in Health Doctors Without Borders Handicap International Water and Sanitation Oxfam Food Catholic Relief Services World Food Program Children, Protection and Reunification Save the Children Unicef International Rescue Committee Author’s Note : If I had a lawyer, she would probably advise me to include some sort of statement urging you to consult the gambling laws in your state as they relate to charitable giving. Luckily, I don’t! So gamble at will and let the chips fall where they may! (cross-posted from Future:Media:Change ) More on Super Bowl XLIV

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Jason Wojciechowski: Super Bowl for Good Guide: Spice Up Your Party and Help NOLA, Indy and Haiti in the Process

Garcon And Vilma: Opponents On The Field, United For Haiti When The Game Ends

Sunday, February 7th, 2010

Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Pierre Garcon and New Orleans Saints linebacker Jonathan Vilma are both of Haitians, and despite facing off against each other in Super Bowl XLIV today, the two are united to help the land their parents came from. Though he was born in the U.S., Garcon carried a Haitian flag around the field of Lucas Oil Stadium after the Colts’ 30-17 victory over the New York Jets. He spoke to the media about his dedication this week. From the Star-Telegram : “The more you guys cover it, the more people will help,” Garcon said to the assembled media. “To make it to the Super Bowl is very tough, but to be here with everything that’s going on in Haiti, it means a lot for me and the Haitian people that are dealing with it. I don’t think most people knew I was Haitian before this happened, but now they know. Everyone now knows I’m Haitian and that I speak Creole (the language spoken in Haiti). I’m very proud to represent Haiti.” Garcon’s Web site — pierregarconlive.com — is accepting donations for earthquake relief. It has raised thousands of dollars and is looking for more. He will travel to Haiti after the season with his foundation — Pierre Garcon Helping Hands — “to hand out clothes, food, money, helping people with whatever they need in any way we can.” Fortunately, the extended families of both players survived the earthquake. Vilma plans a trip to Haiti after the season is over. Both players remain dedicated to bringing relief and comfort to Haiti, despite the outcome of today’s game. More on Haiti Earthquake

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Garcon And Vilma: Opponents On The Field, United For Haiti When The Game Ends

Super Bowl Start Time: Kickoff At 6:25 PM ET On CBS

Sunday, February 7th, 2010

Super Bowl XLIV kickoff is TODAY at 6:25 PM ET. The game will be broad cast live on CBS . Follow Super Bowl 44 action LIVE with the latest tweets from NFL experts as well as Colts and Saints fans. PLUS, don’t miss: – Who is the ultimate Super Bowl hottie? – Lingerie Bowl ladies get ready for action – Top Super Bowl beer ads – BANNED Super Bowl commercials – Most inappropriate Super Bowl ads – Most memorable Super Bowl plays More on Super Bowl

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Super Bowl Start Time: Kickoff At 6:25 PM ET On CBS

Why the Colts will win Super Bowl 44 – SportingNews.com

Saturday, February 6th, 2010

Globe and Mail Why the Colts will win Super Bowl 44 SportingNews.com MIAMI — The Colts passed up an opportunity to write a perfect script this season, but they are 16-0 in games in which they made an earnest attempt to win. You can expect them to play earnestly against the Saints in Super Bowl 44. • 1. … Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning's satchel holds the key to his … New York Daily News Tony Dungy: Colts will beat Saints in Super Bowl, and it won't be close USA Today Super Bowl picks: Colts or Saints? Chicago Tribune Corpus Christi Caller Times

Danny Groner: NFL Championship Games Both Local and National Stories

Monday, January 25th, 2010

On Sunday, the New Orleans Saints and the Indianapolis Colts won to advance to the Super Bowl. Football fans around the nation and across the globe tuned in to see these top teams knock off the last competition that stood in their ways of the NFL’s championship game. Reporters from many different outlets also attended and covered the games, producing columns this morning that accurately and adroitly summarized the games and their meaning. For columnists in Indianapolis and New Orleans, this was an especially emotional time to write about their teams. Writers covering their cities’ squads offer criticism and frustration in their writings when their teams struggle, and inject support and adoration during winning times. While national sports writers too cover the games, there’s no personal investment involved and they are, therefore, more objective in their analysis and recaps. But with that objectivity comes a certain loss. Unbiased accounts, while welcome in the journalism world, can only report. They don’t convey the outpouring of raw emotion that the players, their fans, and the writers who follow them all enjoy together. Take a look at how local writers covered their teams’ wins versus how national columnists approached the sports day. Bob Kravitz in the Indianapolis Star chose to highlight the Colts’ dominant season that fell a bit short of perfection: When it was over, there was Caldwell, flashing a rare smile as the time bled off the clock. There was Garcon, proudly using his performance as a platform on which to make the case for Haitian relief. There was Kelvin Hayden, taking a family portrait on the confetti-strewn field. And there was Manning, looking as proud as he’s ever looked. Now it’s all about legacy-building, about carving out a place in history. They never got the shot at the perfect season. But now, they get a chance to script the perfect ending. After reading Kravitz’s column, you get a sense of how much this game and season means to the Colts’ fans. Similarly, Jeff Duncan wrote in the Times-Picayune about the Saints’ rise from the bottom of the league. Earlier this year, Brees eloquently spoke about the Saints’ season of destiny. He understood the specialness of the season even as it was taking place before his eyes. “Maybe it’s our time,” Brees said that day in Washington after yet another miraculous Saints win. Indeed, it is. And Sunday night it certainly was. After 43 years of famine, finally, a feast. Get ready Super Bowl XLIV, the Saints are coming. For each of these franchises, reaching the Super Bowl means so much more than earning the chance to take home the gold. it goes beyond sports. The match-up pins up against each other symbols of resilience and rebuilding. These are small-market cities that have their times to shine. In these cases, local newspapers can do more than report – they can echo the voice of the city’s people. At the same time, however, national fans seek summaries of the game from other publications. Here’s a sampling of what they emphasized in their columns today: Mike Wise wrote in the Washington Post about Peyton Manning’s ascent to the top tier of quarterbacks. Bob Ryan wrote in the Boston Globe about the sloppiness of the NFC championship game in which the Saints eyed out a win. Ray Ratto wrote in the San Francisco Chronicle about the unfair overtime rule that helped decide the Saints-Vikings game. That doesn’t mean everyone missed the boat. Bill Plaschke of the Los Angeles Times tried to outline for his readers just how important this game was to New Orleans. He said: In the end of an exhilarating Sunday night, it seems the Saints deserved to be running through the confetti and smoke to the Superdome stands like little kids looking for their parents, posing and waving and chanting, a town and a team joined. Plaschke’s perspective, though, still comes through as an outsider looking in, recognizing that something larger is going on. For the beat writers for the Colts and Saints, this has been evident throughout the season as their teams have climbed the standings and won the hearts of more fans with every victory. Now that the Super Bowl is on the horizon, writers from other cities are starting to take notice of the movements that have developed inside these small, off-the-path places. Even though bigger papers have more money and acclaim and employ arguably better writers, they can’t cover everything. As the season progressed, their writers had to follow the hometown teams in favor of the other stories going on around the league. Now that there are just two teams left, all eyes are on them. But for those who have been with the Saints and Colts every second along their journey, they are already miles ahead on this story. Sometimes if you want to know what’s really happening, you have to go to the sources. More on Wash Post

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Danny Groner: NFL Championship Games Both Local and National Stories